The Upshift:
The Path to Healing and Evolution on Planet Earth
Today, we are at a tipping point. If we are to go beyond this point and enter on the way up rather than down, we need to know that this is a realistic option. This excursion into contemporary systems theory tells us that it is. We have a real choice because we are in crisis. And crisis is not only danger, it is also opportunity—golden opportunity.
Crisis in a system constitutes what in the systems sciences is called a "bifurcation": a forking in the trajectory of the system's evolution. When a complex dynamic system becomes unstable, it is compelled to shift the trajectory of its evolution. The human system is in crisis, and it ether bifurcates or leaves the scene of history.
The opportunity for fundamental change does not appear in a functional system. For fundamental change, a disruption is called for in the system: a critical fluctuation. Fluctuations occur at all times in the system, and when they reach a critical point, the system either shifts its evolutionary trajectory to a more stable branch or decomposes to its more stable components.
The system in question may be a group of cells in an organism, a species in the biosphere, or a species in the web of life on the planet. The system that concerns us is the latter: the ensemble of the social, economic, and political systems that constitute the system of humanity on the planet. This system is now in the throes of a critical fluctuation—it is critically unstable. It's evolutionary trajectory is on the point of bifurcating. Insightful people have been anticipating that the human system on the planet will sooner or later bifurcate—its trajectory will break down.
Systems scientists have been investigating the dynamics of the process of bifurcation and reached important insights. It turns out that bifurcation is one-way; it cannot be reversed. But it is not predetermined—it allows for choice. Even a small fluctuation within the system can "nucleate" and govern the evolution of the whole system. In today's world there are many fluctuations—tipping points—that decide the choice among various alternatives. Bifurcation in a complex system is governed by "chaotic attractors"— a probabilistic process of change across chaos. This means extreme sensitivity to change, and significant openness in the system to alternative paths of evolution.
Living at the tipping point, we are granted a golden opportunity. Given growing instability in our political, social, and economic systems, even small groups of people can influence the way we go. They can create the small but potent "initial kick" that decides among alternative paths of evolution for the system.
A typical sequence of events in a process of bifurcation. (1) Fluctuations augment in the system. (2) The fluctuations reach a critical threshold where the system no longer returns to its previous state but leaps to a new state of dynamic stability—or breaks down. (3) In interaction with its environment, a series of intensifying fluctuations appear in the system. (4) A fluctuation reaches a further critical threshold—the "tipping point"— and shifts the system to a new state of dynamic stability.
The iteration of the process of bifurcation either leads to the system's demise or shifts it to higher states and forms of dynamic stability. The resulting system is characterized by a more effective use of information; greater efficiency in the employment of the available resources; greater complexity in structure; and further increase in its levels of organization.
The difference between bifurcation in a system composed of human beings and bifurcation in every other system is the presence of an evolved consciousness. In the human system, the participants can be aware of what is happening and can consciously act to influence it. The decisive actions do not call for the exercise of brute force; they can be created by a shift in the values and beliefs of people. Victor Hugo said that there is nothing as powerful in the world as an idea whose time has come. A shift in the mindset of a critical mass can be powerful enough to decide the way the human system evolves—whether it shifts down to chaos and decay, or up to a more viable condition.
In the absence of the positive "kick," the chances that the human system would evolve toward a more stable condition are slim. A well-placed initial kick in our destabilized system is needed to overcome the remaining, and currently still growing, resistance to change in mainstream society. Because as long as today's society appears salvageable, those who have a significant stake in it are reluctant to abandon it in favor of something new—they fear for their privileges. They would rather try salvaging the system than reaching out to something else. Resistance to change can blocked the evolution of our system. However, the source of the resistance can be identified, and it can be overcome, or at least mitigated.
Shifting to another branch of our evolution is a disruptive development: it calls for fundamental change. And fundamental change does not come from the top—it comes from the bottom. The top becomes destabilized and loses its power to govern the system. At first marginal, but then more and more potent changes at the bottom take over the governing of the system.
This is the way evolution works in nature, and it is likely to be the way it unfolds in the system of human communities as well.
Excerpt from The Upshift by Ervin Laszlo